Commission valid only for first purchase? What if that 1st purchase was a refund and they purchase another one?

I have referred a buyer, however, they made a mistake by buying a HTML template. I got $3 for this affiliate.
Now, he asked the author for the refund and purchased the WordPress.
The author approved his refund request for the HTML and now he’s waiting for the Envato staff to approve the refund.

What if that refund is approved later?
My commission will be:

  1. Deducted by $3 and added by $18 for the WordPress purchase.
  2. Sorry for the bad luck, only the first purchase will count and I will get nothing for this referral.

Please kindly help to answer as this one of the matter so we can consider to make an affiliate site to maximize our revenue.

Thank you!

Seeing it’s all pretty much automated, option two is considerably more likely.